3. Main revenue items provided for in the central budget
Domestic VAT should total 1.4563 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.558 billion yuan or 7.9%. Factors taken into consideration in reaching this total are the ratio of the growth rate of VAT to that of the value added of industry and commerce, as well as the fact that VAT reform will result in a reduction of about 100 billion yuan in revenue.
Domestic sales taxes should reach 443.4 billion yuan, an increase of 186.62 billion yuan or 72.7%. This figure rests primarily on the increase in sales tax revenue generated by the increase in the tax on refined petroleum products following reform of taxes and fees for refined petroleum products to replace the road maintenance fee, as well as on projected sales volume for commodities such as cigarettes, alcoholic beverages and vehicles.
Total import tariffs should reach 989.5 billion yuan, an increase of 73.398 billion yuan or 8%. Calculation of this figure relies mainly on the ratio of the growth rate of import tariffs tothat of regular import trade, taking into consideration a drop in the price of major commodities.
Corporate income taxes should total 760.5 billion yuan, an increase of 43.16 billion yuan, or 6%. This figure is mainly based on the following factors. Corporate profits saw a downturn in growth in 2008 and corporate income taxes are expected to drop in the first half of 2009. In addition, increases in corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in 2009, with increases in corporate income taxes witnessing a corresponding drop in the same period.
Total individual income taxes should reach 239 billion yuan, an increase of 15.582 billion yuan, or 7%. The main considerations used to compile this figure are the higher earnings threshold for the individual income tax effective as of March 1, 2008, temporary scrapping of individual income taxes on interest from savings and stock account balance instituted on October 9, as well as the projected increase in per capita disposable income of urban residents.
Total revenue from the stamp tax on securities transactions should reach 24.5 billion yuan, a drop of 70.468 billion yuan or 74.2%. The main factors behind this figure are the projected daily trade volume for securities plus the large reduction in the stamp tax rate and the scrapping of the stamp tax on stock purchases, and changes instituted in 2008 that will reduce revenue.
Export tax rebates should total 670.8 billion yuan, an increase of 84.21 billion yuan or 14.4%, which will result in a corresponding decrease in government revenue. The main factors taken into consideration were the projected growth in ordinary export trade and the series of increases in export tax rebate rates for some products instituted in the last half of 2008, which will result in a large margin of increase in total export tax rebates in 2009.
The vehicle purchase tax should reach 97 billion yuan, a decline of 1.975 billion yuan or 2%. This figure is mainly based on projected growth in vehicle sales and a reduction in the tax rate for the purchase of passenger vehicles with engine displacements at or under 1.6L to 5%.